The gap between the two lines is unproven claim. It closes only by resolution, never by argument.
| Receipt | Logged | Market | Side | Whales | Entry | Priority | Status |
|---|
Receipt written with market, side, and entry price the moment whales converge. Append-only — entries are never edited or removed.
The outcome is recorded against the logged entry price. No cherry-picking: every receipt is graded, winners and losers alike.
Realized edge and Brier score versus the market-implied baseline, published win or lose. Until then: not yet established.
Whiskers carry equal weight to the dots. Grey rows have not cleared the sample-size gate (n < 30) — magnitude is not yet trustworthy.
Shaded band 0 to +0.10 — region consistent with modest real edge. Right tail inflated by survivorship + in-sample selection.
The mass sits just above zero. The believable story is the median, not the tail.
| Pri | Wallet | Edge | 95% CI | CI 0…+.75 | n | PnL (30d) | Status | Flag |
|---|
Prices are Polymarket-implied, not a NEXUS model output. Facts, not forecasts.
| Asset | Market | Markets | 24h vol | Implied ≈ |
|---|
| # | Market | Side | Entry | Settle | Return / $100 | Status | When |
|---|